Overview
- On July 17, 2026, a White House session and a House field hearing in New York pushed negotiators to find a compromise after financial disclosures about the president’s crypto revenue created an ethics impasse that has cost Democratic support.
- The CLARITY Act still requires merged Senate text, roughly 60 votes to clear a filibuster, and the president’s signature to become law, with only about three working weeks left before the Senate recess.
- Prediction markets have trimmed the bill’s near‑term chances to roughly 30–35 percent, a decline traders attribute to the ethics fight and growing doubts about the Senate calendar.
- Key unresolved policy disputes holding up agreement include how to treat stablecoin yields, oversight and liability rules for decentralized finance and protections for noncustodial developers.
- If the Senate misses the recess deadline, congressional action will likely slip into 2027 and regulators such as the SEC and CFTC may move forward with their own rulemaking, leaving industry uncertainty despite the bill’s earlier House passage and committee approval.