Overview
- Negotiators failed to produce an updated Senate draft after a White House meeting this week that President Donald Trump held with Republican senators and industry representatives, leaving the bill stalled on the Senate calendar.
- Senate Democrats say they will not supply the roughly seven to ten votes needed for cloture without stronger, bipartisan ethics rules that would limit crypto ties for the president, vice president, senior officials, and members of Congress.
- Prediction markets have cut the bill’s odds of becoming law this year to roughly 30–35 percent, with Polymarket trading the probability in the low 30s as negotiators miss a narrow window ahead of the August recess.
- The House held an informational field hearing on July 17 to press the case for the CLARITY Act but the session does not change the Senate timetable or resolve the ethics dispute that is blocking a floor vote.
- If the measure stalls, regulatory uncertainty over which agency — the SEC or the CFTC — oversees different digital assets will likely persist, delaying industry investment and leaving major rulemakings to federal agencies or pushing comprehensive legislation into 2027.