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ETF Flows Leave Bitcoin Recovery Fragile as Whales Accumulate Ahead of Fed

This week’s Federal Reserve decision could decide whether weak, concentrated ETF demand pushes Bitcoin past $67,000 or lets it fall toward $61,000.

Overview

  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered roughly $465 million of net outflows on July 23–24 that were driven mainly by BlackRock’s IBIT and erased most of a prior short‑term inflow streak.
  • Despite the two‑day drain, the week ending July 24 closed with a small net inflow of about $33.8 million and July month‑to‑date flows show roughly $233.96 million into Bitcoin ETFs and $337.74 million into Ether funds.
  • ETF trading intensity has weakened with a recent five‑session week of spot BTC ETF volume near $8.05 billion, the lowest since October 2024, leaving price moves more sensitive to large, concentrated fund flows.
  • On‑chain metrics show large holders added about 19,696 BTC over an eight‑day span while retail dip‑buying cooled, signalling supply is shifting to bigger wallets even as short‑term buying remains thin.
  • Market participants say the next sustained trend depends on the Fed’s guidance this week and whether steady ETF inflows return to reclaim the ~$67k resistance and defend the ~$61k support while stalled U.S. crypto legislation removes a near‑term structural catalyst.