Overview
- Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, told Reuters that Russia is failing to make major gains and is losing more soldiers than it recruits.
- He said sanctions on Russia’s banks and oil sales are cutting government income and weakening finances, citing a 0.3% economic contraction in the first quarter, and he urged allies to tighten these measures.
- European intelligence assessments report some of Russia’s slowest advance rates since 2023 and see no sign the Kremlin is easing its aims, including control of the Donbas region.
- Rosin warned that a new general mobilisation would be deeply unpopular in Russia and could threaten domestic stability.
- He forecast that Moscow will keep a large force on Ukraine’s borders after the fighting ends and continue sabotage operations in Western countries, even as Russia denies such activity.