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ESRI Finds No Short-Term Job Loss After Ireland’s Minimum Wage Rises

The Low Pay Commission will use the results to shape its 2027 recommendation.

Overview

  • The ESRI report published Tuesday found no increase in job loss for minimum‑wage workers after recent annual rises.
  • Researchers tracked outcomes for six months after each increase and found no added risk even in years with larger hikes.
  • Employers relied more on youth sub‑minimum rates, with the share of under‑20s on those rates rising from under 20% in 2019 to 30% in 2025.
  • Irish law sets lower statutory rates for young workers, at 90% of the adult rate for 19‑year‑olds, 80% for 18‑year‑olds, and 70% for those 17 and under.
  • The authors cautioned the findings reflect a period of strong growth and low unemployment, so outcomes could differ in a weaker economy.