Overview
- ESPN released its preseason FPI over the weekend, listing Ohio State first followed by Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia and defending champion Indiana in the initial Top 25.
- FPI is a strength rating that converts a team’s points-above-average into projected records and odds by running roughly 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
- The release includes team-level probabilities for conference titles and College Football Playoff berths and conference breakdowns that show both top-end contenders and deeper leagues such as the SEC.
- The rankings triggered immediate fan and analyst pushback on social media with critics calling some placements too high (Penn State) and others too low (Miami), while defenders note FPI is a model-based rating not a definitive season ranking.
- Beyond the argument over spots, coverage notes how offseason coaching moves, transfer-portal shifts and NFL departures complicate preseason projections and that past preseason FPIs have diverged from final outcomes, so the ratings should be read as a starting forecast rather than a final judgment.