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ESPN FPI Places Cowboys on NFC Playoff Bubble at No. 11 With a 9-8 Projection

The preseason model turns offseason optimism into specific odds and leaves Dallas with roughly a coin-flip chance to reach the postseason.

Overview

  • ESPN released its initial preseason Football Power Index on June 3 and ranked the Dallas Cowboys 11th, projecting a 9-8 regular-season record.
  • FPI gives Dallas a 48.1% probability of making the playoffs and positions the team seventh in the NFC, meaning it sits on the conference cutoff for postseason spots.
  • The model assigns explicit postseason odds: 31.7% to win the NFC East, 26.2% to reach the divisional round, 12.2% to reach the conference championship, 5.2% to reach the Super Bowl, and 2.6% to win it.
  • FPI credits the Cowboys mainly to offense, rating that unit at +1.8 points to margin, with the defense at -0.2 and special teams at +0.2, and builds projections from betting-market win totals, schedule, quarterback depth, and kicker-based special-teams ratings.
  • The report situates Dallas in league context by naming the Rams the preseason favorite and the NFC West as the strongest division, and it notes that reaching a conference championship would mark the Cowboys' deepest run since 1995.