Overview
- ERCOT filed a preliminary long-term forecast that puts Texas peak demand near 367,790 MW by 2032, then cautioned that the number is likely overstated and should not guide reliability planning yet.
- Public Utility Commission of Texas leaders said they need a more accurate load outlook before committing to resource or transmission plans that could raise customer bills.
- ERCOT’s near-term view is far lower, with summer 2026 peak demand projected between about 90,500 MW and 98,000 MW, underscoring the gap between short-range expectations and the high-end scenario.
- Interconnection activity is surging, with about 432 GW of new generation requests in 2025 and roughly 410 GW of large-load requests that ERCOT says are about 87% data centers.
- Even modest growth would be hard to serve because key grid equipment has multi-year lead times, advanced gas turbines are scarce until around 2030, and an aging energy workforce limits how fast projects can be built.