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ERCOT Says Texas Load Forecast Quadrupling by 2032 Is Overstated and Will Be Reworked

Regulators want a forecast that filters speculative large‑load proposals.

Overview

  • Texas grid operator ERCOT filed a preliminary 2032 peak forecast of 367,790 megawatts, which is more than four times the record 85,508 megawatts set in August 2023.
  • PUCT leaders and ERCOT officials said the headline figure likely overstates future demand and agreed to produce a more reliable forecast before using it for planning.
  • The estimate leans on reports tied to very large customers like data centers and cryptocurrency mines, and officials warned many of these projects never move past early talks.
  • ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said Texas is seeing unusual growth in big power users and pledged to refine how these loads are counted, noting earlier testimony that interconnection requests total about 410,000 megawatts with most linked to data centers.
  • Even ERCOT’s nearer‑term outlook expects a new summer peak, raising stakes for reliability decisions that affect the 27 million Texans the grid operator serves.