Overview
- The official advisory projects mostly weak coastal warming through the period with a chance of moderate intensity around July.
- Central Pacific conditions are most likely neutral through May, with a weak El Niño signal favored to develop from June.
- Seasonal outlooks call for above‑normal rainfall and warmer air on the northern coast, with moderate to strong rain episodes most likely in March and April.
- Hydrology guidance warns of above‑normal river flows on the Pacific slope and possible rapid rises that could trigger flooding.
- ENFEN flags near‑term fishing impacts with increased anchoveta reproduction and continued availability of bonito and perico, and it plans the next bulletin for February 27.