Overview
- ENFEN has maintained an active alert for a coastal El Niño and projects the event could persist through February 2027 with a likely shift from weak to moderate intensity by November–December.
- CIIFEN has issued parallel warnings for Ecuador, saying several coastal zones may see above‑normal rainfall that raises risks of floods and landslides.
- Scientists report persistent sea surface warming in the eastern Pacific that is already altering fish habitat by pushing anchoveta to deeper and more southern waters and bringing warm‑water species closer to shore.
- Forecasts remain probabilistic and experts, including UNAM researchers, emphasize uncertainty about whether 2026 conditions will escalate into an extreme 'Niño Godzilla' event.
- Governments in the region have begun coordinating prevention and response actions because past strong El Niño episodes caused massive floods, infrastructure damage, and large economic losses.