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Energy Spike Lifts Early Forecasts for 2027 Social Security COLA

Competing estimates of 3.2% or 2.8% remain tentative pending more CPI-W readings.

Overview

  • Advocacy group The Senior Citizens League now pegs the 2027 increase at 2.8 percent, matching this year’s adjustment.
  • Social Security analyst Mary Johnson separately estimates a 3.2 percent increase based on March inflation data reported by CNBC.
  • Gasoline prices jumped 21 percent in March and overall inflation rose to 3.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Recent oil and gas spikes followed Iranian limits on Strait of Hormuz shipping after U.S. and Israeli strikes, constraining a route that carries about one‑fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.
  • The official COLA, which affects more than 70 million beneficiaries, will be calculated from CPI‑W readings through the summer and announced in October.