Overview
- Reuters, citing five sources Monday, said the Bank of Japan will likely keep rates unchanged next week and may signal it could raise them by June.
- Prediction markets show near-zero odds for April moves, with an ECB 50-basis-point cut priced near 0.2% and any BOJ cut near 0.1%.
- These betting markets are extremely thin, so small trades can swing quoted odds, which makes the signals fragile even as they reflect a hold consensus.
- ECB officials continue to urge patience, with Governing Council member Demarco pointing to more data by June and Christine Lagarde warning that broad household aid could prompt higher rates.
- Oil and gas disruptions tied to the Iran–Israel conflict are lifting inflation risks and delaying policy shifts, with Germany convening its national security council on Sunday to address the energy crunch and Japanese households reporting very high inflation expectations.