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Energy Shock Keeps Major Central Banks on Hold as ECB Lifts 2026 Inflation Outlook

Policymakers cite conflict-driven energy costs as the key risk to prices and growth.

Overview

  • ECB left rates unchanged for a sixth meeting and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, with a severe-case estimate of 4.4% and a cut to GDP growth to 0.9%.
  • Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% for a second straight meeting to gauge the pass-through from higher oil and gas prices.
  • Bank of Japan kept its policy rate around 0.75% for a second meeting, and Governor Kazuo Ueda warned a prolonged oil surge could increasingly weigh on growth.
  • The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.5–3.75% as the global energy shock complicates the policy path that had been tilting toward cuts earlier this year.
  • BOE Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that household utility bills could jump later this year if current conditions persist, reinforcing the wait-and-see stance across major central banks.