Overview
- Preliminary June data showed Eurozone headline CPI at about 2.8% year-on-year with core CPI near 2.4%, though monthly core rose by 0.2%, signaling uneven internal momentum.
- Prediction-market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket now price a U.S. inflation peak in May and expect June CPI to cool, a view that will be tested by the BLS report on July 14.
- The easing in headline inflation has been driven mainly by falls in crude and gasoline after mid-June relief in shipping and geopolitical tensions reduced energy premia.
- Pakistan’s June CPI eased to 11.07% year-on-year with a 0.3% monthly decline led by lower transport fuel and electricity prices, but food inflation and other core components remain elevated.
- Policymakers gain short-term flexibility from softer headline prints, yet officials will watch services, core readings and pipeline indicators and face risks from renewed oil shocks or adverse weather for food supplies.