Overview
- Published in Frontiers in Environmental Science on February 20, the study models three warming outcomes by 2100—about 1.8°C, 3.6°C, and 4.4°C—using CMIP6-based scenarios across ice, ocean, atmosphere, and ecosystems.
- Under very high emissions, winter sea ice could shrink by roughly 20 percent, krill ranges would contract south, and cascading impacts on penguins, whales, and global ocean warming would intensify.
- Ice-shelf risks escalate with heat: Larsen C is assessed as likely to collapse by 2100 and George VI as possibly collapsing by 2300, with scenario discussions noting potential sea-level contributions up to about 116 millimeters.
- A low-emissions pathway would leave winter sea ice only slightly reduced, limit the peninsula’s sea-level contribution to a few millimeters, and keep most glaciers and supporting ice shelves largely recognizable.
- The authors say the world is currently tracking toward a medium to medium-high emissions future, pointing to more days above 0°C, increased rainfall, stronger extreme events, and growing hazards that hinder Antarctic field research.