Overview
- Elida, which forecasters say is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane Friday, is located several hundred miles southwest of Los Cabos with current sustained winds near 50 mph.
- The National Weather Service and local offices warn that Elida will generate 4- to 5-foot swells and dangerous rip currents for Southern California beaches beginning this weekend.
- Models diverge on Elida’s track: the National Hurricane Center favors a path well southwest of the U.S. coast while the GFS model pulls moisture closer to California, a known tendency the NHC cautions about.
- Forecast confidence is limited because Elida formed over data-sparse, unusually warm waters and no Hurricane Hunter flights are planned, so short-term intensity and moisture guidance could change.
- NOAA’s strengthening El Niño and record-warm sea-surface temperatures make the eastern Pacific more active this season, increasing the chance of additional storms in the coming weeks and raising the risk of coastal impacts even from storms that stay offshore.