Overview
- Forecasters say Elida is likely to reach Category 1 hurricane strength on Friday before weakening as it moves over much cooler ocean waters.
- Even if Elida stays offshore, the storm is forecast to produce 4-to-5-foot swells for south-facing beaches and locally higher surf up to about 8 feet with dangerous rip currents starting as early as Sunday.
- Some weather models show Elida’s remnant moisture could be pulled near the California coast early next week and bring muggy air, rare July rain, and isolated thunderstorms in higher terrain, but that outcome is uncertain.
- NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center point to a rapidly strengthening El Niño and deep Pacific warmth that favor more eastern Pacific storms this season and could produce a 'conga line' of cyclones.
- Forecast uncertainty remains high because Elida formed in a data-sparse part of the ocean, no Hurricane Hunter flights are planned, and model runs vary with some (notably the GFS) tending to overestimate closeness or strength, so officials urge people to heed local National Weather Service guidance for marine safety.