Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 62% chance that El Niño develops in June–August, with about a one‑in‑three chance it reaches strong intensity by fall.
- IRI’s multi‑model outlook and other long‑range guidance have shifted toward a moderate‑to‑strong event by late summer or fall, with some projections allowing for a very strong outcome; AccuWeather pegs a “super” El Niño at about 15%.
- El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by boosting upper‑level wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, which makes storm formation and intensification more difficult.
- Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are near or slightly above average, creating potential to offset some suppression, and the timing of El Niño’s onset could leave an early‑season window if development is slow.
- Historical strong El Niño seasons have produced fewer storms on average yet still delivered major impacts, and experts say a strong event could also elevate the likelihood that 2027 becomes the warmest year on record.