Overview
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has posted an El Niño Watch for June through August as models flag warming in the equatorial Pacific.
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says the Pacific is neutral now and reports a deep pool of warm water that could surface and tilt conditions toward El Niño later in 2026.
- In the transition before El Niño sets in, near‑normal Pacific waters known as ENSO‑neutral can shape early hurricane season, and Texas has seen more landfalls in these “La Nada” years, including Beryl in 2024.
- If El Niño develops, stronger high‑altitude winds over the Caribbean and western Atlantic often disrupt storm formation there, while waters off Mexico and Central America tend to see more activity.
- El Niño summers often run hot, with Houston’s 2023 setting city heat records, and talk of a rare “super” event remains speculative.