Overview
- Early August forecasts from NOAA, the WMO and university teams report a rapidly strengthening El Niño that is very likely to reach very strong or 'super' levels by late 2026 and persist into early 2027.
- The Atlantic has been unusually quiet so far, producing only two weak named storms and very low accumulated cyclone energy, and Colorado State University’s Aug. 5 outlook keeps a below‑average season forecast of nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane.
- Scientists say the suppression in the Atlantic is driven by El Niño‑linked stronger upper‑level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and by large plumes of Saharan dust that reduce moisture, both of which tear apart developing storms.
- Warmer central and eastern Pacific waters tied to El Niño have powered a busy Eastern and Central Pacific season, and forecasters warn systems could still form near the U.S., Gulf or Bahamas and that a Pacific disturbance may threaten Hawaii in the coming week.
- Humanitarian and ecological risks are rising as agencies including the U.N. World Food Programme warn a very strong El Niño could push tens of millions more into acute hunger and worsen drought, flood and fire threats in vulnerable regions, prompting calls for anticipatory aid and preparedness.