Overview
- NOAA and the WMO report ENSO-neutral conditions through April–June, with models putting the chance of El Niño starting between May and July near 61% and rising toward year’s end.
- Peru’s ENFEN keeps a Coastal El Niño alert in place, expecting a weak event into early 2027 with a possible shift to moderate strength in June–July and a likely peak in November–December.
- How strong the event could become remains uncertain, with Spain’s Aemet saying a Súperniño is unlikely for now and reported odds ranging from about 15% to roughly 62% in different outlooks.
- Regional guidance points to uneven effects, with Chile seeing about a 60% winter chance tied to heavier rain in the center and south, while parts of Mexico may face less rain and more heat in the north and bursts of heavy rain along the Pacific coast.
- Forecasters urge people to follow official updates and prepare for both drought and flood risks, noting El Niño often eases Atlantic hurricanes and boosts Pacific storm activity.