Overview
- Spain's Aemet now puts the chance of El Niño starting in early summer near 60%, with about 20% to 25% odds of a strong event before autumn.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center projects roughly a 61% to 62% chance that conditions will meet El Niño thresholds between late spring and mid-summer.
- ECMWF and some U.S. model ensembles indicate high odds of a strong event, though Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says the ocean signal must be confirmed by changes in trade winds, pressure and cloud patterns.
- National agencies and several researchers push back on the 'super' label, noting it is not an official category and that spring outlooks carry lower skill.
- If El Niño strengthens later this year, forecasters expect drier conditions for parts of Australia, warmer conditions across Europe, and a short-lived boost to global temperatures with the peak likely felt in 2027.