Overview
- Late‑May satellite data from Sentinel‑6 and NASA/JPL have detected large eastward‑moving Kelvin waves and rising coastal sea levels that signal subsurface heat is surfacing in the tropical Pacific.
- Major forecast centres now place high odds on El Niño forming between May and July 2026 and persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.
- Ensemble models agree on a moderate‑to‑strong event but diverge on peak strength, with a subset of runs showing a non‑negligible chance of a 'super' El Niño with sea‑surface anomalies above about 2°C.
- Regional agencies warn concrete near‑term effects: India’s IMD keeps a below‑normal monsoon forecast at about 90% of average and China’s climate centre says impacts will peak in autumn and winter, threatening crops, water and power systems.
- Experts say Kelvin waves and ocean‑atmosphere coupling are the mechanism that can amplify global heat and shift rainfall patterns, so governments and sectors should prepare for varied outcomes as forecasts resolve over the coming months.