Overview
- Forecasters at NOAA, the WMO and major centers said on Sunday that El Niño is highly likely to form between May and July 2026 and is likely to persist into the December‑February 2026–27 period.
- NOAA places roughly a one‑in‑three chance that sea surface warming will reach about 2°C or more, a level often called a ‘super El Niño’ that only a few events have crossed historically.
- Scientists say a key uncertainty is low‑level trade winds and atmosphere‑ocean coupling that will determine whether the event becomes very strong or remains moderate.
- If the event strengthens, models and experts warn it could raise global temperatures further, reduce Indian monsoon rains, shift U.S. winter precipitation patterns, boost Eastern Pacific cyclone activity and worsen coral bleaching.
- Because this El Niño would occur on top of human‑driven warming, forecasters advise preparedness for hotter conditions, disrupted food and water supplies and greater wildfire and health risks through 2027.