Overview
- Major forecast centres including the WMO, NOAA/CPC, ECMWF and IRI now put strong odds on El Niño forming between mid‑2026 and summer and persisting into late 2026 or early 2027.
- Models agree on likely arrival but diverge on intensity, with many ensembles projecting at least a moderate event and a subset showing a possible very strong or record‑level episode while peak amplitude remains uncertain.
- India’s Meteorological Department has forecast a below‑normal southwest monsoon of about 90% of the long‑period average, and farmers are already changing sowing and irrigation practices in response to hotter, drier conditions.
- Experts warn the event will probably raise global mean temperatures and shift rainfall and cyclone patterns, increasing the odds of heatwaves, droughts, floods and agricultural losses that could push up food prices.
- The next full ENSO assessment from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due Thursday, June 11, is expected to provide the first post‑spring diagnostic that could formally declare El Niño and narrow uncertainty about its near‑term evolution.