Overview
- NOAA has declared El Niño conditions present in the tropical Pacific and daily sea‑surface data show sustained warming in the Niño 3.4 region through early July.
- Multiple international forecast centres and multi‑model ensembles report unusually strong agreement that the event will strengthen rapidly and is likely to reach strong or very‑strong levels later this year.
- NOAA currently assigns about a 63% chance the event will reach the 'very strong' threshold between November 2026 and January 2027, and some model runs project record‑high Niño 3.4 anomalies.
- Forecasters expect shifted weather patterns that raise the odds of heatwaves, droughts and suppressed South Asian monsoon rains in some areas while increasing heavy rain and flood risk in others and reducing Atlantic hurricane odds through increased wind shear.
- National agencies and the WMO are urging preparedness, with governments, UN food aid bodies and regional services mobilizing contingency planning and early‑action funding to protect agriculture, water supplies and vulnerable communities.