Overview
- NOAA estimates roughly a 60% chance that a weak El Niño will emerge by August with at least a moderate event possible in October–December, while WMO reports rising probabilities through summer.
- Observations show a sizable warm pool 100–250 meters below the western Pacific moving east as a Kelvin wave alongside bursts of westerly winds that align with early-stage El Niño development.
- The NOAA Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a ≥+2°C “super” event at about 13% from October 2026, with some independent forecasts near 15%, underscoring a wide envelope from no event to an extreme one.
- Potential impacts include a shift in global extremes, with the western Mediterranean at risk of heavier summer rainfall and a warmer autumn, whereas direct effects on Germany are expected to be limited.
- Economic and humanitarian risks are flagged for commodities such as sugar, coffee and cocoa and for food security and displacement in vulnerable regions, with Peru already warning of heavy rain and unusual heat.