Overview
- European model guidance points to a likely El Niño later in 2026, with roughly a 20% to 25% chance it reaches very strong levels.
- NOAA keeps an El Niño Watch and estimates about a 62% chance of onset in June to August, with a one‑in‑three chance the event is strong late in the year.
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology rejects the “super” label and says models show a return to neutral now with a possible shift to El Niño by the end of winter.
- Scientists warn forecasts in March and April carry low confidence because the ocean and atmosphere may not yet be working in sync, so clearer signals are expected by late May or June.
- If El Niño forms, experts say it could push global temperatures higher into 2027 and raise flood risk in parts of Latin America while increasing the odds of drought, heat and bushfire conditions in Australia and parts of Asia.