Overview
- Peru’s ENFEN, which reaffirmed its coastal El Niño alert Tuesday, now expects the event to persist into January 2027 and says a brief strengthening is possible in June and July.
- International models from NOAA and ECMWF put the chance of El Niño forming in May–July near 61 percent and the odds of a strong event near 25 percent, with intensity estimates set to sharpen after June.
- Argentina’s outlook points to wetter-than-normal conditions in the northeast and Litoral later in 2026, raising flood risk on the Paraná and Uruguay rivers and threatening crops and low-lying livestock areas.
- Peru’s civil defense agency urges homes in flood-prone areas to prepare by clearing drains, sealing cracks, placing sandbags, elevating appliances, and keeping an emergency kit and evacuation plan.
- Ocean heat building below the equatorial Pacific has increased for months and can surface to drive El Niño, and a warmer climate background can turn even a moderate event into more damaging rain and heat.