Overview
- NOAA places a 62% probability on El Niño developing between June and August 2026 and about a one‑in‑three chance it is strong in October–December, with the WMO cautioning that spring limits forecast confidence.
- Subsurface heat from westerly wind bursts and an eastward Kelvin wave is surfacing in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño‑1+2 already positive and trade winds weakening.
- Ensemble guidance from C3S/ECMWF and the NMME shows a wide spread that includes high‑anomaly outcomes at the upper tail, reinforcing the need for caution on event intensity.
- Peru maintains a Coastal El Niño alert and will decide in April on opening the anchoveta season after IMARPE’s March surveys, while the central bank estimates a weak event would trim 2026 GDP by about 0.1 point and highlights risks for lemons, mangoes, grapes and some bananas.
- Mexico’s meteorological service reports a weakening La Niña with a 55% chance of neutral conditions for May–July and is monitoring rainfall shifts in the south, as U.S. outlooks note that El Niño’s hurricane‑suppressing shear could be offset by unusually warm Atlantic waters.