Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a Thursday May 14 update, put the chance of El Niño forming in the next two to three months at about 82% and persisting into winter at 96%, with roughly a two-in-three chance it ranks strong or very strong.
- Scientists point to a vast pool of subsurface heat and an eastward-moving pulse called a downwelling Kelvin wave that has jump‑started rapid warming off South America.
- Peak strength remains uncertain because the ocean–atmosphere feedback needs repeated eastward wind bursts to lock in, and spring is the hardest season for reliable ENSO forecasts.
- If El Niño strengthens, Atlantic hurricane activity often drops due to stronger wind shear that disrupts storms, while the central and eastern Pacific tend to see more cyclones, increasing risks for Hawaii and the West Coast.
- A stronger event would raise the odds of weaker monsoon rains in India and drier conditions across parts of Southeast Asia, wetter conditions in portions of the southern U.S. and South America, and a short‑term boost to global temperatures that could push 2026–27 toward record warmth.