Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in Thursday’s update, put the chance of El Niño starting between May and July at 82% and the chance of it persisting into winter at 96%, with about a two‑in‑three chance the peak is strong or very strong and a 37% chance it reaches the top tier.
- Several model suites, including ECMWF, now allow for very large warming later this year, with some scenarios near 3°C in the eastern and central Pacific, though forecasters stress these outcomes remain uncertain.
- A vast reservoir of unusually warm subsurface water and April’s brief trade‑wind reversals sent an east‑moving downwelling Kelvin wave toward South America, which has accelerated surface warming that often precedes El Niño.
- Even before the peak, the pattern could reshape risks this season by tilting the Atlantic toward fewer hurricanes, boosting storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and raising odds of weaker monsoon rains and drought in parts of India and Southeast Asia.
- Scientists warn the spring predictability barrier still limits confidence, so sustained summer wind bursts and ocean–atmosphere coupling will decide the peak strength, with stronger outcomes likely to nudge global temperatures higher into 2026 or 2027 and raise flood and drought risks that affect crops, water supplies and health.