El Niño Likely to Form in 2026, Raising Risks for Brazil's Power System and Vulnerable Communities

Overview

• The World Meteorological Organization reported in early June about a roughly 90% chance of El Niño forming in 2026, a finding backed by ocean observations that show equatorial Pacific warming since February.
• Researchers say the event is most likely to be moderate to strong with peak intensity possibly in late 2026 or early 2027, but the exact timing and footprint that will determine local impacts remain uncertain.
• Models and regional simulations project drought risks for the North and parts of the Northeast, heavier-than-normal rains in the South, and complex heat-then-rain sequences in Rio de Janeiro’s mountain zones that raise landslide and flood danger.
• Experts warn the power system is vulnerable because lower reservoir inflows and higher temperatures would push up electricity demand and force greater use of thermal plants, raising blackout risk and household bills.
• Authorities have stepped up monitoring and some states have issued alerts, yet researchers and local leaders say disaster-prevention investment and on-the-ground preparedness remain insufficient for the communities most at risk.