Overview
- Major forecast centres including the World Meteorological Organization, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center and ECMWF now assess that El Niño is likely to form between June and August 2026 and to persist into late 2026.
- Agencies agree on high odds of formation but sharply disagree on peak strength, with some ECMWF ensemble runs showing rare very large Niño 3.4 anomalies while forecasters stress large uncertainty about whether those high‑end scenarios will materialize.
- India’s Meteorological Department has issued a below‑normal southwest monsoon outlook at about 90 percent of the long‑period average, which raises risks for rainfed farmers, sowing decisions, crop yields and rural incomes.
- Forecasters say the key short‑term signals to watch are whether Niño 3.4 weekly anomalies hold above the threshold, whether subsurface warm water continues feeding the surface and whether equatorial trade winds weaken and stay weak.
- El Niño’s global impacts typically lag initial Pacific warming, with teleconnected effects such as intensified heat, altered rainfall and higher food‑price and supply risks most likely to peak in late 2026 into early 2027.