Overview
- U.S. forecasters and international centers confirmed El Niño formed in June and now give a high likelihood it will strengthen into a very strong event with Pacific anomalies above 2°C.
- Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and large parts of the global ocean are at or near record highs, with daily warm records in June and forecasts of marine heat waves that could affect nearly half the ocean by year’s end.
- Models project El Niño will strengthen through the summer and likely peak between November and January, with impacts that could persist into 2027, but agencies note important model spread and caution against treating peak intensity as certain.
- Forecasters warn the pattern will shift rainfall and temperature worldwide, raising risks of droughts, heavy rains, floods and heat waves that threaten crops, grazing, water supplies and fisheries in vulnerable regions such as the Sahel, southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Central America.
- Because scientists can give months of advance warning, agencies are urging governments and farmers to prepare now for altered planting, water and fishery management and to watch for possible large economic and humanitarian strains if forecasts hold.