Overview
- Meteorological agencies officially declared El Niño formed on June 11, and forecasters have since raised the probability that it will strengthen into a very strong or 'super' event later in 2026.
- NASA’s Sentinel‑6 satellite and ocean measurements tracked a roughly 14,500 km eastward Kelvin wave and a roughly 15 cm regional sea‑level rise that provide physical evidence driving recent model upgrades.
- Multiple forecast centres now assign roughly a greater‑than‑60% chance of the event reaching very strong status, with some model runs suggesting record‑level intensity though peak amplitude remains uncertain.
- A strong El Niño typically shifts global rainfall and storm patterns, increasing risks of droughts, floods, marine heatwaves and major disruptions to fisheries, crop yields and energy demand that could push food and commodity prices higher.
- Scientists stress remaining model uncertainty and note that background global warming can amplify impacts, so agencies and vulnerable countries are being urged to fund early warning systems, targeted preparedness and local adaptation measures.