Overview
- Mid‑June meteorological updates show El Niño is already active with multiple forecast systems giving a high chance it will persist into late 2026 and into 2027.
- Multi‑model ensembles including the NMME project central and eastern equatorial Pacific sea‑surface anomalies that in some runs exceed +2°C, a level associated with very strong past El Niño events.
- Observations in June set unusually high daily Niño 3.4 sea‑surface temperature records and a sequence of record highs, increasing confidence that the event could intensify as models indicate.
- U.N. and market analysts say near‑record global wheat and rice stocks may blunt immediate supply shocks, but Fitch and others warn a prolonged strong El Niño could raise food prices, push inflation higher and strain vulnerable governments.
- Forecasts remain uncertain because of seasonal limits to predictability and the influence of a warmer baseline climate, so agencies are urging early preparation for likely regional impacts on monsoons, drought, floods, health and energy systems.