Overview
- Pacific sea-surface and subsurface temperatures have risen to unusually high anomalies, with weekly values above +2.6°C and some reconstructions or projections suggesting anomalies up to about +4°C.
- Global agencies project the event will likely persist through February 2027 and may peak late 2026 to early 2027, a timing forecasters say could make this one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record.
- Regional warnings have followed: South African authorities say the event raises the likelihood of below-normal summer rainfall and heatwaves, and aid groups warn Central America could face sharp food-security needs if rains fail.
- More than 180 Indian ecologists and additional signatories have issued a Call to Action to scale field and satellite monitoring, document ecological impacts, and prepare policy responses for risks to coral reefs, forests and agriculture.
- Scientists and agencies urge practical steps now, including conserving water, advising farmers on planting and livestock decisions, repairing monitoring stations, and mobilising humanitarian preparedness where models show acute drought or flood risk.