Overview
- Multiple meteorological agencies report a rapidly strengthening El Niño that is very likely to persist through the August–October 2026 trimester with peak influence expected between September and December and effects lingering into 2027.
- The World Food Programme says the event could add about 49 million people to acute hunger by end‑2027 and has activated anticipatory plans and mobilized emergency funding in several vulnerable countries.
- Argentina’s SMN and regional services forecast above‑normal rainfall and higher temperatures for much of the country’s centre and east for Aug–Oct, warning that river basins such as the Paraná face elevated flood risk late in the year.
- Peru’s Enfen and Sunafil say a strong El Niño Costero signal could continue into April 2027 and have urged workplace safeguards and infrastructure checks while coastal fisheries in Pucusana already report sharply reduced catches and rising prices.
- Experts stress regional variability and urge targeted early actions such as pre‑positioning aid, cash transfers, infrastructure inspections and adaptive fisheries and agricultural planning to reduce humanitarian and economic fallout in fragile, high‑risk areas.