Overview
- NOAA declared El Niño had formed on June 11, and successive updates from forecasting centres have raised the chance it will strengthen into a very strong or 'super' event by late 2026.
- Satellite and ocean data show a large trans‑Pacific Kelvin wave and record warm sea‑surface anomalies across the Niño region that are driving model forecasts higher.
- WMO and other agencies warn the strengthening El Niño will raise the risk of heatwaves, marine heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall through its global atmospheric teleconnections.
- A new CREA analysis projects India could face about an 18 TWh generation shortfall over the next year, boosting coal use and emissions while increasing strain on the grid and water supplies.
- Forecasters stress uncertainty in exact regional impacts, and experts call for early warnings, rapid investment in storage and grid upgrades, and scaled adaptation finance to limit humanitarian and economic harm.