Overview
- The US Climate Prediction Center declared El Niño conditions on June 11, and multiple agencies say observations now show the event has formed.
- Ocean and satellite data, including subsurface Kelvin waves and rising sea levels, have pushed many models to give a high probability this El Niño will strengthen into a very strong or ‘super’ event later in 2026.
- Markets and governments are already reacting with tighter export rules, fishing bans and higher fertiliser and fuel costs that are raising costs for farmers and traders.
- Forecasters and the UN warn that South and Southeast Asia, West Africa and parts of South America face the greatest crop risks — especially for rice, maize, cocoa and palm oil — while marine heat waves threaten fisheries and coral ecosystems.
- Forecasts still carry uncertainty, so agencies urge early action on water management, targeted subsidies and restoring fertiliser flows while monitoring seasonal model updates and ocean observations.