Overview
- New May guidance from Europe’s ECMWF, reported by outlets including Fox Weather and The Independent, shows scenarios reaching about 3°C above average in the key Pacific zone by late year, pointing to a high chance of a very strong El Niño.
- NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization say conditions are likely to tip into El Niño between May and July after a neutral start to 2026, with confidence in formation rising across major model suites.
- Scientists warn a strong El Niño could help drive new global heat records, with some experts saying the annual average could breach 1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with 2026 tracking as one of the warmest years so far.
- Expected knock-on weather shifts include wetter conditions across the U.S. South and Gulf Coast, a tilt toward fewer Atlantic hurricanes due to stronger wind shear, and higher drought risk across parts of Asia and Australia.
- Research summarized by Vox finds past ‘super’ events can trigger lasting climate regime shifts, while UNEP reports a widening adaptation finance gap, underscoring calls for early water planning, crop support and power-grid safeguards, especially where hydropower is vulnerable.