Overview
- Major forecasting centres now place high odds on El Niño forming by mid‑2026, with agencies reporting that conditions observed in late May 2026 make onset and persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter likely.
- Satellite altimetry from Sentinel‑6 and NASA/JPL analyses have tracked successive eastward Kelvin waves and a broad warm sea‑level ‘wall’ across the equatorial Pacific, classic early signals of El Niño development.
- Ensemble forecasts from NOAA, ECMWF and other models include many runs showing moderate to very strong warming and a non‑negligible chance of a 'super' El Niño with sea‑surface anomalies above about +2°C to +2.5°C by autumn.
- Governments and agencies are already preparing for regional impacts: India has convened agricultural reviews and the IMD has warned of a likely below‑normal monsoon, while authorities worldwide are warned to plan for heatwaves, droughts, floods and health stresses.
- Forecasters stress important uncertainty because spring predictability is limited; sustained weakening of trade winds and tighter ocean–atmosphere coupling this summer will determine the final peak and which regions face the worst effects.