Overview
- NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory on June 11 and said ocean and atmospheric indicators show a coupled El Niño state with a 63% chance the event will reach very strong levels in November–January.
- Japan’s meteorological agency and India’s IMD have also confirmed El Niño onset and the IMD warned it is likely to strengthen during the southwest monsoon, which could suppress rainfall across parts of India.
- Forecasters say a very strong El Niño would tend to raise global average temperatures, increase the odds of record‑hot years, and amplify heatwaves and high‑tide flooding on top of human‑driven warming.
- Typical regional signals include a southward shift of the Pacific jet with wetter conditions in the southern U.S., reduced Atlantic hurricane activity from increased wind shear, and higher cyclone risk in the eastern and central Pacific.
- Confidence in persistence through late 2026 and early 2027 is high because of satellite and subsurface heat observations, but agencies note model spread and differing thresholds leave peak strength and local impacts uncertain and under active monitoring.