Overview
- U.S. forecasters confirmed El Niño is present on Thursday, June 11, and said the pattern is expected to persist through the fall and winter.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigns a 63% chance the event will reach “very strong” levels and gives near‑certain odds it will continue into early 2027.
- Global model ensembles led by Copernicus and ECMWF have revised upward in May–June, with many runs projecting sea‑surface anomalies of roughly 2.5°C to 3.5°C in key Niño zones by November.
- Forecasters say the event is likely to raise global average temperatures, suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, boost eastern Pacific storms, and reduce monsoon rainfall that threatens crops and water supplies in parts of South and Southeast Asia.
- Authorities and analysts urge preparation now because the event develops over months, but they caution that exact peak intensity and local impacts remain uncertain and will become clearer as the season progresses.