Overview
- In early July 2026, NOAA issued an El Niño advisory and the World Meteorological Organization said model ensembles point to rapid intensification into a strong to possibly record event between July and September.
- Daily NOAA sea surface data show the Niño 3.4 region in the central equatorial Pacific has been persistently warmer through June and early July than in 2025, with the gap widening to about 1.64°C by July 4; the Niño 3.4 index is the standard measure forecasters use to track El Niño.
- Forecasters warn the pattern raises the odds of widespread extremes: weaker southwest monsoon rains and higher drought risk in India, greater heat and fire risk in Australia, wetter conditions in parts of the Horn of Africa, and altered US winter storm tracks with more southern atmospheric rivers and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.
- National meteorological services, humanitarian agencies and emergency planners have begun issuing guidance and contingency plans to protect crops, water supplies and vulnerable communities in regions likely to be affected.
- Significant uncertainty remains about the exact peak strength, timing and local effects because other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden–Julian Oscillation can change outcomes, and human-driven warming raises baseline temperatures that can amplify El Niño-linked extremes.