Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on Thursday, June 11, declaring El Niño has developed and giving a 63% chance it will reach “very strong” levels in November 2026–January 2027.
- Multiple international agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF ensembles corroborate the onset and show some model runs with extreme sea‑surface anomalies as high as about 2.6–3.0°C in parts of the Niño region, though peak strength remains uncertain.
- Forecasters say the event is likely to raise global average temperatures and increase the chance of record warm months, because the tropical Pacific is already carrying unusually high ocean heat content and sustained westerly wind anomalies.
- Regional shifts already expected include a southward shift of the Pacific jet that favors wetter winters in the southern U.S. and drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest, fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more activity in the eastern/central Pacific, and heightened risk of marine heat waves.
- Agencies warn of broad societal impacts on agriculture, water supplies and coasts given past super El Niño episodes and the warmer climate baseline, and they urge preparedness while noting that local outcomes depend on the event’s eventual strength and timing.