Overview
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on June 11, declaring the ocean and atmosphere in a coupled El Niño state and estimating a 63% chance the event will reach “very strong” levels in November 2026–January 2027.
- India’s Meteorological Department has also confirmed El Niño and says it is likely to strengthen during the southwest monsoon, which raises concerns about reduced seasonal rainfall across much of India.
- Ensemble climate models include runs that project a ‘super’ El Niño with central‑eastern Pacific sea‑surface anomalies as large as roughly 2.6–3.0°C, but model spread, the spring predictability barrier, and differing agency thresholds leave peak strength and timing uncertain.
- Forecasters warn the event will likely push up global average temperatures and change regional weather: it tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation while favoring storms in the central/eastern Pacific and to bring wetter winters to parts of the southern U.S. and drier conditions to parts of South and Southeast Asia and northern Australia.
- Agencies urge early preparedness because the event could threaten crops, water supplies and coastal communities, and officials will continue monthly ENSO monitoring to refine impact forecasts into late 2026 and early 2027.