Overview
- U.S. forecasters at NOAA confirmed El Niño is active on June 11 and gave about a 63% chance it will reach ‘very strong’ levels by November–January according to the latest ensemble outlooks.
- NASA and the Sentinel‑6 Michael Freilich satellite recorded unusually high sea surface heights on June 8 that reveal a deep subsurface reservoir of warm water and eastward Kelvin waves, conditions that often precede powerful El Niño events.
- Major forecast centers including the WMO, ECMWF and national meteorological services have raised odds of a strong or ‘super’ event but warn peak strength and local impacts remain uncertain because models diverge and seasonal predictability is limited.
- Humanitarian and market responses have shifted to preparedness with UN food agencies and the WFP launching a $202 million anticipatory appeal while Risilience models estimate up to $342 billion in potential crop losses and acute risk to roughly 500 million smallholder farmers.
- Forecasters expect regionally varied effects with wetter conditions for parts of the southern United States and southern South America and drought risk for Australia, Indonesia and parts of Asia, including a likely weakening of India’s monsoon that could cut yields and push food prices higher.